2025 NHL draft big board: Ranking the top 64 prospects

The games are done for the top draft prospects; there is no hockey left to be played. A few players in the top 10 played until the last possible moment, making a lasting impression on scouts and executives at the Memorial Cup. With the combine taking place this week in Buffalo, New York, players will undergo physical testing and a rigorous interview process with interested teams. The combine allows teams to ask out-of-the-box questions, get a feel for the personalities of the players and, in some cases, understand the significance of injuries.

There is room for movement on the draft board because combine testing does impact model outputs. Furthermore, this list weighs scouting as 40% of the evaluation. The final ranking, which will be published June 23, will weigh scouting, projection, off-ice assessments and industry intel to varying degrees, which may see some players move up or down.

There are five parts of this set of rankings:

• The rank, which accounts for attributed value based on projection, the confidence of the projection and scouting.


• The NHL projection weighs the projection formula at 70% and scouting at 30%, and represents the most likely outcome for that player. The final edition of the rankings will include the player's NHL ceiling.


• The NHL floor uses the same formula and represents the worst outcome, above 10% probability of occurring. If a player has a 4% chance of never playing NHL games and an 11% chance of becoming a fourth-line winger or No. 7 defenseman, then those projections will be used for NHL floor. For some players in the draft, the floor is outside of the NHL, perhaps the AHL or KHL.


• Projection confidence is based solely on the projection formula and forms two parts: confidence and volatility. The confidence has four tiers: High, fair, medium and low. This represents that confidence the model has that the player will reach the NHL projection for 200 or more NHL games. The level of confidence impacts the value of the player and, therefore, their rank. High confidence is above 80%, fair is 60% to 79%, medium is 35% to 59% and low is below 35%. The volatility has four categories: Low, slight, medium and high. Volatility relates to the range of outcomes a player has in their career. A player with a low volatility means there is a smaller range of outcomes for the NHL career, whether that is a No. 1 defenseman to top-pair defenseman, or third-line center to bottom-six forward. A player with high volatility has a wide range of outcomes, with relatively even distributions over the NHL projection. It could be related to a number of factors: the league they play in, their scoring if they changed leagues, injuries or a significant uptick/downturn in play. Many of these players are considered "raw" in their development curve.


• Strengths are each player's standout abilities.

"Boom or bust" is an all-encompassing phrase with confidence and volatility. It means the player either hits their NHL projection or is unlikely to play 200 NHL games. The difference between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection is simple: It means injuries played a role in the projection, and the sample size makes it difficult to confidently project the player's most likely outcome; or that the league in which the player plays does not have a successful history of producing NHL players.

One other consideration is the "Russian factor," where skilled Russians are more likely to return to Russia if they fail to hit their NHL projection.

Here is how the top 64 prospects line up according to my model:

1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)

NHL projection: No. 1 defenseman

>NHL floor: Top-pair defenseman

>Projection confidence: High confidence, low volatility

>Strengths: Mobility, puck moving, creativity, rush activation

2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)

NHL projection: Elite No. 1 center

>NHL floor: Second-line winger

>Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play

3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)

NHL projection: First-line center

>NHL floor: Second-line center

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling

4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-line power forward

>NHL floor: Middle-six winger

>Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size

5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Top-six, two-way center

>NHL floor: Third-line checking center

>Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Two-way play, quick hands, playmaking, efficient puck play

6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

NHL projection: Second-line center

>NHL floor: Third-line scoring winger

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking

7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)

NHL projection: First-line scoring center

>NHL floor: Injury-shortened career

>Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Speed, puck handling, quick release, size

8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

NHL projection: Top-six scoring forward

>NHL floor: Middle-six scoring forward

>Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill

9. Jake O'Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)

NHL projection: Top-six playmaking center

>NHL floor: Middle-six scoring winger

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense

10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)

NHL projection: Top-four defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Physicality, transition defense, mobility, puck moving

11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward

>NHL floor: Bottom-six power forward

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility

>Strengths:Motor, wall play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness

12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)

NHL projection: Top-four shutdown defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair transition defenseman

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Size, stick positioning and use, hockey sense

13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-line versatile forward

>NHL floor: Third-line checker

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths:Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor

14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward

>NHL floor: Middle-six forward

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling

15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)

NHL projection: Second-pair transition defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman

>Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Gap control, mobility, transition play

16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger

>NHL floor: Bottom-six forward

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Speed, finishing ability, hands, size

17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength

18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center

>NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking

19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring winger

>NHL floor: AHL player

>Projection confidence: Boom or bust

>Strengths: Speed, puck handling, offensive instincts, finishing ability

20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center

>NHL floor: Bottom-six forward

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, quick hands, competitiveness

21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)

NHL projection: Top-four transition defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair defensive defenseman

>Projection confidence:Fair confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Skating, transition play, hockey sense

22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)

NHL projection: Top-six forward

>NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Speed, agility, offensive play driving, elite release

23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger

>NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger

>Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play

24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way winger

>NHL floor: Bottom-six winger

>Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity

25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)

NHL projection:No. 1 starting goaltender

>NHL floor: 1B tandem goaltender

>Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility

26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman

>Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Transition defense, in-zone defensive play, size, mobility

27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)

NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair offensive specialist

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot

28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line power forward

>NHL floor: Fourth-line forward

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed

29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center

>NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play

30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward

>NHL floor: AHL player

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: High-end motor, raw playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles

31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line forward

>NHL floor: NHL depth player

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Puck protection, skating, offensive instincts, puck skill

32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six playmaker

>NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth

>Projection confidence: Boom or bust

>Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer

33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward

>NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Playmaking, shooting, creativity

34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way center

>NHL floor: Fourth-line center

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility

>Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor

35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)

NHL projection: Third-line power forward

>NHL floor: Bottom-six checking forward

>Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill

36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward

>NHL floor: Third-line scoring depth

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Playmaking, finishing ability, offensive instincts

37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)

NHL projection: Platoon starting goaltender

>NHL floor: High-end NHL backup

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Positioning, controlled movements, patience in save selection

38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defender

>NHL floor: AHL scoring defenseman

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Puck moving, gap control, creativity

39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line, two-way center

>NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, finishing ability

40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center

>NHL floor: AHL top-six center

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts

41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)

NHL projection: Top-six power forward

>NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill

42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger

>NHL floor: Bottom-six speedster

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Speed, puck handling, transition offense

43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six power forward

>NHL floor: AHL player

>Projection confidence: Boom or bust

>Strengths: Quick release, creativity, physicality

44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six power forward

>NHL floor: KHL player

>Projection confidence: Boom or bust

>Strengths: Size, strength, physicality, heavy shot

45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defenseman

>NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Mobility, transition defense, physicality, size

46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman

>NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Instincts, mobility, gap control, puck moving

47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six, two-way center

>NHL floor: Bottom-six checking speedster

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Speed, transition play, motor

48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger

>NHL floor: KHL player

>Projection confidence: Boom or bust

>Strengths: Puck handling, instincts, creativity

49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman

>NHL floor: KHL player

>Projection confidence: Boom or bust

>Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality

50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)

NHL projection: Middle-six physical forward

>NHL floor: Fourth-line physical forward

>Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Strength, physicality, size, mobility

51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)

NHL projection: Third-line scoring winger

>NHL floor: AHL top-six forward

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense

52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center

>NHL floor: Fourth-line physical center

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility

>Strengths: Strength, size, defensive play, motor

53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way center

>NHL floor: Fourth-line physical presence

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Defensive play, strength, size, wall play

54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor

55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, low volatility

>Strengths: Defensive play, size, physicality

56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six defensive center

>NHL floor: Fourth-line center

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Competitiveness, size, defensive play

57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman

>NHL floor: No. 7 physical defenseman

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Physicality, size, strong stick, penalty killing

58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center

>NHL floor: AHL depth

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill

59. Haoxi "Simon" Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman

>NHL floor: AHL player

>Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility

>Strengths: Skating, mobility, size, transition defense

60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward

>NHL floor: AHL depth

>Projection confidence: Low confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking

61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking winger

>NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger

>Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility

>Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor

62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman

>NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating

63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)

NHL projection: 1B NHL goaltender

>NHL floor: Reliable NHL backup

>Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility

>Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism

64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way scoring depth

>NHL floor: AHL top-six scoring forward

>Projection confidence: Boom or bust

>Strengths: Speed, puck handling, motor

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