Betting: Why we like Jeanty to beat projections but Cowboys to prevail

Week 11of the NFL season wraps up with the Dallas Cowboys hitting the road to take on the Las Vegas Raiders on "Monday Night Football."

The Cowboys (3-5-1) are coming off an ugly loss at home to the Arizona Cardinals and have lost two straight overall. The Raiders hung tough with the Denver Broncos in Week 10 before suffering their third straight defeat to drop them to 2-7 on the season.

The teams haven't faced each other in the regular season since 2021.

The Cowboys are favored by a 3.5 on Monday in a game that has the highest total points over/under of the week (50.5).

Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.

Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.

Game bets

Maldonado: This is a high total for what these offenses are capable of right now. The Cowboys play fast and can put up points, but their games inflate because the other team usually brings firepower. Las Vegas doesn't. The Raiders are bottom of the league in scoring, and now their structure is even more fragile with a banged-up quarterback, a depleted offensive line and a run game that's generating almost no yards before contact. Dallas is volatile enough to stall drives or trade possessions. Since the Raiders' best chance is by slowing the game down, shortening drives, that points to an under rather than a shootout.

Notable player props, bets

Bowen: In a matchup where Las Vegas has to control tempo, let's take Jeanty to hit the over versus a Dallas defense giving up 4.8 YPC, which ranks 27th in the league.

Loza: The addition of Quinnen Williams figures to bolster the Cowboys' rushing defense. Still, the team's secondary remains a liability, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards (2,446) and the seventh-most receptions of 20 or more yards (30) on the season. Tyler Lockett's five grabs put a damper on Tucker's potential coming-out party (on the heels ofJakobi Meyers' departure), but the speedster still managed a grab of 25 yards in Week 10. In fact, Tucker has logged a catch of at least 20 yards in six of nine games this season.

Solak: Few things have been as automatic this season as running back receiving overs against Matt Eberflus' defense. The Cowboys don't just play zone coverage at one of the league's highest rates, but are particularly cautious in their zones, further encouraging RB targets. The poor LB room has been another reason for RB success through the air, and while DeMarvion Overshown makes his season debut tonight, he is but one man.

Walder: A combined tackle line of 6.5 is as high as it gets for an outside corner, and there have been six of them this year: three for Paulson Adebo, two for Devon Witherspoon and one for Kamari Lassiter. So this is Bland's welcome to the tackling corners club, fresh off a 14-tackle performance in his last game, the Cowboys' Week 9 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

His tackling prowess extends to beyond that last game, however. His 14% tackle rate on pass plays is best among corners that have been on the field at least 60% of the time in games played this season. His 7% tackle rate on opponent run plays is merely above average for the position. And that wide gap is key here; the Raiders, though underdogs in this game, are a run-leaning team with a negative-6% pass rate over expectation this year, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That should hurt Bland's forecast and help us go under this high line.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS (2-3 outright) as favorites this season, including 0-2 outright as road favorites.


• The Cowboys overs are 12-1 off a bye since 2012.


• The Raiders are 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss.


• Home underdogs of at least three points are 5-3-1 outright and 6-3 ATS in prime-time games this season.

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