Chiefs come through, big favorites don't cover and more NFL betting news from Week 12

After going 11-0 in one-score games during the 2024 season, the luck pendulum had completely swung back on the Kansas City Chiefs, who entered Sunday 0-5 in one-score games for 2025. But sportsbooks never lost faith in Kansas City and on Sunday, the Chiefs finally reversed the narrative, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 23-20.

Despite a 5-5 record, Kansas City entered Sunday's action against the 8-2 Colts as 4.5-point favorites and was -190 to make the playoffs, even while statistically being on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, per ESPN BET odds. Bookmakers understand the potential of the team as long as quarterbackPatrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid are in the fold, though, especially knowing bettors were prepared to back them.

"The Kansas City Chiefs remain highly respected in our Power Rankings, showing minimal movement week to week despite their average record," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN over email. "Bettors continue to back them heavily, as if the outcome is already decided and today's performance showed why."

Even following Week 11's action, when the Chiefs fell to the Denver Broncos, Kansas City was Caesars' second-most-backed team by handle and was still considered one of BetMGM's largest Super Bowl liabilities, demonstrating bettors' faith in the team and sportsbooks' rightful hesitancy to lengthen their odds too much.

While the Chiefs were finally able to buck the one-score-loss trend, they still didn't cover the favorite spread, dropping their record against the spread to 5-6. Kansas City is 1-6 against the spread versus teams with winning records, per ESPN Research.

Parlays strong in early slate

During the early Sunday slate, all seven favorites won their games straight up but covered the spread in only two of the contests. That would prove to be a blessing and a curse for the sportsbooks.

"The early morning slate wasn't ideal for the book, as all favorites cashed on the moneyline," said Feazel. "When that happens, parlay handle becomes a factor as many bettors love stacking heavy favorites into one ticket, and this Sunday those parlays paid off."

That said, the books were able to make back some money on underdogs covering the spreads. BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said bettors were "not afraid of big favorites," specifically, the New England Patriots (-7.5) and Detroit Lions (-14), who squeaked out close wins against the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants, respectively. The Baltimore Ravens (-14.5) and Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) were also well supported at Caesars and DraftKings.

All three double-digit favorites failed to cover the spread Sunday.

Odds & Ends

• The Dallas Cowboys were as long as +1300 on the live money line before they rattled off 24 unanswered points to beat the Philadelphia Eagles24-21.


• Hard Rock Bet posted a full menu of Shedeur Sanders props for his starting debut in the Cleveland Browns' 24-10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Caesars said the game saw "relatively light action" overall but that the book had liability on Sanders' over 161.5 passing yards prop, which he cashed with 209.


• Chalk winning outright meant that there were not many eliminations in the $1,000-per-entry Circa Survivor contest, with four of the five most popular selection (Ravens, Seahawks, Lions and Packers) all up to the task; the most popular selection of the week -- the San Francisco 49ers -- will look to get it done Monday night against the Carolina Panthers.

College Football Odds & Ends

• Saturday's Missouri-Oklahomagame turned into a Pros-vs-Joes showdown, featuring significant line movement. The Sooners opened as high as 9.5-point favorites, but the line crashed during the week with influential bettors siding with the underdog Tigers. The line got down to as low as -3.5 at some sportsbooks leading into Saturday's kickoff in Norman, a dramatic adjustment for this point of the season. The line movement was contrary to the betting support, though. Oklahoma was the most popular bet on the board -- by number of wagers and amount bet -- at DraftKings and BetMGM. This time the Joes bested the Pros, with the Sooners winning 17-6.


• Texas Tech, owner of the best record against the spread in college football (10-1), is looking to become the first team since 2012 Northwesternto cover the spread in at least 11 games during a regular season. The Red Raiders are the first Power 5 team to cover the spread in 10 of their first 11 games since Coloradoin 2016. Texas Tech begins the week as a 21.5-point road favorite over West Virginia in the season finale Saturday.


• Odds to win the Heisman Trophy [as of Sunday; via ESPN BET]
  
  
  
  • IndianaQB Fernando Mendoza -130
  
  
  • Ohio StateQB Julian Sayin +425
  
  
  • Notre DameRB Jeremiyah Love +500
  
  
  • VanderbiltQB Diego Pavia +600
  
  
  
  


• Notable Thanksgiving week opening lines [via ESPN BET]
  
  
  
  • Georgia-12.5, 59.5 vs. Georgia Tech
  
  
  • Texas A&M-2.5, 51.5 at Texas
  
  
  • Ohio State -11.5, 44.5 at Michigan
  
  
  • Alabama-3.5, 48 at Auburn