Joe Lunardi's men's Bracketology March Madness watch guide

We're fast approaching the hour in which we'll find out the field for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament. Until then, some movement in the projections is still possible.

Joe Lunardi's Bracketologyhas been capturing the race to March Madness holistically all season. This watch guide is designed to take you inside the mind of Joey Brackets, and how he anticipates results that could impact the projected bracket.

These are the final headlines he's watching as the selection show nears (6 p.m. ET). A team's latest projection is listed in parentheses if not otherwise noted.

Scores available here. All times Eastern.

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Sunday, March 15

HEADLINES

• Top lines: There is little, if anything, left to determine. For me, Purdue has grabbed the last 2-seed with its Big Ten tourney run and St. John's has pretty much grabbed the last 4-seed (with Arkansas also in play for that spot).


• Notably good news: UConn's big loss in the Big East title game might have positive consequences; if the Huskies drop to No. 6 overall, they can be sent to the East Region and be paired with Duke.


• Elite Eight forecast: If seeding holds, we'll have four compelling paths to the Final Four: (1) Duke and (2) UConn in the East; (1) Michigan and (2) Iowa State in the Midwest; (1) Florida and (2) Houston in the South; and (1) Arizona and (2) Purdue in the West.


• Bid-stealer watch: The last potential bid thief is Dayton. If the Flyers prevail today, VCU returns to the at-large pool and will be one of three teams (along with SMU and Texas) on the chopping block.

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