NFL Week 9 preview: Picks, predictions, schedule, betting odds, fantasy tips
Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season is here! Football is back in Madrid, this time featuring the Bengals and Falcons. Back in the States, Drake Maye and Jordan Lovewill face off, Shedeur Sanders might start in place of Deshaun Watson (concussion), and the Raiders return to the Bay Area.
We're here to get you ready for the action. First, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know. Then, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel and betting analyst Pamela Maldonado hits betting insights for each contest. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and Maldonado, Moody and Walder give us final score picks for every game.
Let's get into the full Week 9 slate, which culminates with "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Bills and Vikings on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted, and all odds are via Draftkings.)
Jump to a matchup:
CIN-ATL | DAL-IND | NYJ-KC
DET-MIA | CLE-NO | NYG-PHI
LAR-WSH | DEN-CAR | HOU-LAC
GB-NE | LV-SF | ARI-SEA
TB-CHI | BUF-MIN
What ESPN Analytics says ...
Bengals (5-2) at Falcons (3-5)in Madrid
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | CIN -3 (52.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Bengals: The numbers say quarterbackJoe Burrow is in the midst of a career year. After he tallied six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) last week, that's what Falcons DC Jeff Ulbrich believes, too. Said Ulbrich: "He's playing his best football that he's ever played in his career, in my opinion, right now." Burrow leads the NFL in passing TDs (20) and ranks fourth in passing yards (2,115). -- Ben Baby
What we're hearing on the Falcons:Atlanta will need to disrupt Burrow to give itself the best chance to win. The Falcons have the personnel and scheme to do it, too -- Brandon Dorlus and Gervon Dexter Sr. rank first and second, respectively, in the NFL among DTs in pressure rate. They are the first teammates to be first and second in that category through eight weeks since 2018. -- Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: The Falcons' have 16 turnovers, second most in the NFL behind the Chargers (17). It's also Atlanta's most through eight games of season since 2003 (19). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction:Dorlus will record a sack. He has a 11.5% pressure rate when playing tackle, best in the NFL. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals have averaged a league-high 36.3 points per game over their past three games, but running backChase Brown has scored 10 or more fantasy points just once during that stretch. He has still averaged 18.6 touches per game, and now he faces a Falcons defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to backs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight:Burrow is 15-7-1 against the spread/straight up in nonconference games and 22-10 ATS/straight up following a win since 2022. Atlanta can pressure QBs, but Burrow gets the ball out quickly enough to make that tough. If the rush doesn't get there, the Falcons allow almost a 75% completion percentage. With WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Cincinnati has the guys to turn those clean pockets into TD drives. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Bengals 30, Falcons 24
Moody's pick: Bengals 30, Falcons 27
Walder's pick: Falcons 23, Bengals 21
FPI prediction: CIN, 77.3% (by an average of 7.7 points)
Matchup must-reads:Trio brought in to replace All-Pro DE has shined for Bengals ... Falcons' Pearce back from suspension, expected to play ... Bengals DE Howell out indefinitely after wrist surgery
Cowboys (3-5) at Colts (2-6)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | DAL -5.5 (51.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Cowboys: For at least the third time this season, the Cowboys are facing a must-win game. Last week's overtime loss was difficult to move on from given the poor defensive and offensive performances while playing at home. Now on the road and facing a team that has fired its general manager and could trade even more of its top players, Von Miller senses danger. "Those guys are fighting for their lives as well," he said. "They're trying to find their identity, too. And those teams are always scary whenever you play them because you really don't know what to expect." -- Todd Archer
What we're hearing on the Colts: The Colts have given up 33 or more points in four of their six losses this season, meaning Sunday's matchup with the high-scoring Cowboys has the potential to go awry. Indianapolis is coming off a 42-7 loss, and the Colts have shown very little defensive resistance this season. Of note will be the matchups between Colts CBs Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward and Dallas WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. "Just a very, very talented group," coach Shane Steichen said of the Cowboys' playmakers. -- Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Colts QB Daniel Jones is the only QBR-qualified quarterback without a touchdown on a pass of at least 10 yards or more downfield this season. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Colts RB Seth McGowan will score a touchdown. With Jonathan Taylor potentially on the trade block, I suspect Indianapolis might want to lighten his workload. That opens the door for a McGowan score. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Cowboys RB Javonte Williams had 25 touches last week but finished with only 6.7 fantasy points. The workload hasn't been an issue. Williams has averaged 19.3 touches per game and has scored a touchdown in six of eight games. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, so Williams should bounce back in this matchup. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: Since 2024, Dak Prescott is 4-14 ATS as a favorite (7-11 straight up). Dallas keeps giving opponents chances to hang around, allowing more than 51% of third downs to be converted. Indianapolis has its own problems, but the Cowboys rarely force turnovers and struggle to end drives. Prescott has a favorable matchup, but asking this defense to protect a lead feels shaky. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Cowboys 31, Colts 27
Moody's pick: Cowboys 31, Colts 24
Walder's pick: Cowboys 27, Colts 14
FPI prediction: DAL, 61.2% (by an average of 2.9 points)
Matchup must-reads:Williams says Cowboys must 'execute,' over and over ... Colts' Steichen defends Taylor usage, says RB will keep role ...Source: Colts, Adebawore agree to 2-year, $35M extension...Forget about Cowboys' D, what happened to the GOTI offense?
Jets (2-6) at Chiefs (5-2)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | KC -10 (47.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Jets: New York is showing signs of life on offense, especially the past two weeks, but the Jets left a lot of points on the field because of poor efficiency in the red zone -- they're last with a 42% conversion percentage. They actually devoted more practice time this week to red zone play. "We just have to be better. And there is a sense of urgency," offensive coordinator Frank Reich said of the red zone woes. RB Breece Hall (quadriceps) is expected back after a five-game absence, but WR Garrett Wilson (concussion) could be out. -- Rich Cimini
What we're hearing on the Chiefs: Two words were expressed by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo following the collapse last week: killer instinct. The Chiefs allowed the Broncos to score 15 points on two drives. Spagnuolo wants to see how his players perform if they have another lead. "That was on my objective for going into this game, if we are fortunate enough again to get in that situation," Spagnuolo said of building killer instinct. "... I asked everybody to ask themselves this question: Did you let up? Did we lose our edge? Did I call it differently? Hopefully, we will be presented with that situation again, and hopefully we can rise up and make those plays." -- Nate Taylor
Stat to know: Jets QB Geno Smith has 16 completions on passes 20-plus yards downfield, which is tied withDrake Maye for the second most in the NFL (Jordan Love, 18). Smith's 59% completion rate on such throws is also the best in the NFL. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Jets will win. Sometimes football doesn't make sense. The Jets' young core is playing quite well. They've just been losing games. And the Chiefs are hardly infallible. Sometimes, strange things happen. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes scored 25.4 fantasy points last week, his second-highest total of the season. It was also his second game with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdowns. Mahomes has another favorable matchup this week against a Jets defense that has allowed 28.1 fantasy points to the Raiders' Kirk Cousins, 26.0 to the Dolphins' Malik Willis and 23.8 to Maye over its past three games. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The Chiefs are 0-10 against the spread in November games since 2024. Their offense makes another close finish believable, as Kansas City averages only 23.9 points. On the New York side, Smith has completed 69% of his passes with only three interceptions. If he avoids handing Kansas City easy points, the Jets can make this annoying for the Chiefs until late. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Chiefs 21, Jets 13
Moody's pick: Chiefs 30, Jets 16
Walder's pick: Jets 23, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: KC, 80.3% (by an average of 8.6 points)
Matchup must-reads:Glenn says RB Hall is Jets' starter despite Allen's emergence ... Chiefs' floundering pass rush starts with Jones: 'I always can be better' ... Jets' WR Wilson in concussion protocol, RB Hall trending toward return ... Mahomes hasn't run QB sneak since '19 season
Lions (5-2) at Dolphins (1-6)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | DET -7 (50.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Lions: Coach Dan Campbell is very familiar with this Dolphins organization. In 2010, he began his coaching career as an offensive intern in Miami. He spent six seasons with the team, which included an interim head coaching stint in 2015, when Miami went 5-7. In Campbell's only previous meeting against the Dolphins as coach, the Lions lost 31-27 in 2022. He isn't taking this contest lightly. "They're young, they're hungry, they're active," Campbell said. "They run, they hit, they hustle, they finish, try to play disciplined ball and they're playing that way." -- Eric Woodyard
What we're hearing on the Dolphins: OL Kadyn Proctor returned to practice this week, despite remaining in concussion protocol. His return could be a major difference-maker for an offense that will look to control the game on the ground and keep Detroit's league-leading offense (395.4 yards per game) off the field for as long as possible. Miami averages the second-most yards before contact per rush attempt (2.93), and the Lions' defense allows the most yards before contact (1.30). Miami struggled to get push at the line of scrimmage without Proctor last week, however, averaging a season-low 1.74 yards before first contact. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Dolphins QBMalik Willishas gone consecutive games with multiple passing TDs for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, the Lions allow a league-high 2.6 passing TDs per game. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Lions will return a kickoff for a touchdown. There has been only one kick return for a touchdown by any player all season, but the Dolphins' kick coverage has shown signs of weakness. They have allowed 13.7 kick return yards over expected per return, per NFL Next Gen Stats, more than any other team. The next-worst team is the Jets at only 8.6! -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Lions QB Jared Goff scored only 9.6 fantasy points last week, but he had scored at least 18 fantasy points in each of his previous five games. He has a great opportunity to bounce back against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to QBs, the fourth most to WRs and the third most to TEs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight:Goff is 0-3 ATS/straight up against the Dolphins. Miami has a way to keep this close. Detroit keeps allowing multiple passing scores, even with its defense playing better. Willis has thrown two touchdowns in each of his past two games. His legs add another headache, especially with injuries piling up across Detroit's defense. Goff can't fix that himself. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Lions 31, Dolphins 27
Moody's pick: Lions 31, Dolphins 23
Walder's pick: Lions 34, Dolphins 17
FPI prediction: DET, 77.7% (by an average of 7.7 points)
Matchup must-reads:Campbell has full movement in lower body after neck injury ... Dolphins' blown lead another lesson in a season full of them
Browns (5-3) at Saints (2-5)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | NO -3 (42.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Browns: QB Shedeur Sanders will likely make his first start of the season with Deshaun Watson sidelined in the concussion protocol. Sanders has been the backup all season, but he has rapport with the Browns' starters after splitting reps with Watson during their competition in training camp. Coach Todd Monken said he doesn't anticipate drastically altering the game plan, but Sanders, an aggressive downfield passer, could help jump-start the Cleveland offense. "[Sanders] has unwavering confidence in himself and that only boosts us as team up, from the offensive line to the receivers to the running backs," receiverDenzel Boston said. "So, we feed off that confidence." -- Daniel Oyefusi
What we're hearing on the Saints: LT Kelvin Banks Jr. (ankle) and WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) returned to practice this week. Coach Kellen Moore hasn't said whether that means they'll play, pointing out that Tyson in particular has been away from football since August. Banks said his return will be a joint decision between him and the team. "Honestly, just me feeling confident in my ankle and that I can go out there and play, that's the biggest thing," Banks said. "All players have been through moments where they felt little nicks and bruises, but ... it's always about me being confident in my ankle's ability and that I can go out there and perform just like I did before I even got hurt." -- Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Saints WR Chris Olave has more receptions (49) and receiving yards (636) than all other Saints WRs combined (47 receptions, 495 yards). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction:Sanders will record a higher QBR than Watson has in any game this season (68.1). I'm honestly not much of a Sanders believer, but I do think there's a chance he has much more success in 2026 playing with the Browns' rookie WRs and with more experience behind him. Plus, the bar Watson set isn't all that high. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Browns RB Quinshon Judkins had season lows of 13 touches and 6.9 fantasy points last week. With the Browns trailing, Dylan Sampson led the backfield in snaps and routes run and finished with 12.9 fantasy points. Judkins needs Cleveland to stay competitive to get his usual workload. The Browns are only slight underdogs against the Saints, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The Saints have failed to cover seven straight games off a bye since 2019, going 3-4 straight up. Cleveland can keep this ugly. The Browns pressure QBs and limit passing production, andTyler Shoughhas cooled off. New Orleans also struggles against the run, giving Judkins a chance to take pressure off Sanders. Neither offense looks built to run away here. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Browns 23, Saints 21
Moody's pick: Saints 23, Browns 17
Walder's pick: Browns 24, Saints 19
FPI prediction: NO, 65.3% (by an average of 4 points)
Matchup must-reads:Browns QB Watson in concussion protocol; status unclear ... Saints' Tyson returns to practice, listed as limited participant ... Millennnial minds: How Browns' Switzer is one of nine OCs who are 35 and younger ... Five things Saints must fix entering Week 9
Giants (4-2-1) at Eagles (2-6)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | NYG -3.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Giants: The Giants believe the bye week should've helped QB J.J. McCarthy. He's now fully caught up after being traded to New York in late September. McCarthy, who is making his second start for the Giants, expects Eagles DC Vic Fangio to make him "earn it." It will be the latest test of whether the young QB can succeed while facing simulated pressures and getting through his progressions. -- Jordan Raanan
What we're hearing on the Eagles: The Eagles are going withJoe Milton at QB to try to spark the offense. Tanner McKee went 0-3 in place of Jalen Hurts (calf) and had trouble evading the persistent rush behind a leaky offensive line. Milton has greater escapability and a strong arm but has been on the team for only three weeks after being signed off the Cowboys' practice squad. "I think he's worked really hard," coach Nick Sirianni said. "He's always in the building doing the extra things, and I like his progression." -- Tim McManus
Stat to know: Giants WR Malik Nabers has had four consecutive games with 100 receiving yards, which is tied for the second-longest streak in Giants history (2015 Odell Beckham Jr., six). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles LB Zack Baun will record 13 or more tackles, setting a season high. I could see the Giants having a high volume of runs in this game -- either because they think it will help McCarthy or because they're protecting a huge lead -- and if so, that should allow for a ton of tackling opportunities for Baun. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley has scored at least 12 fantasy points in each of his past two games but didn't have more than 14 touches in either. His playing time has also been limited, including just 32.3% of the Eagles' offensive snaps last week. Philadelphia might be easing him back from his hamstring and back injuries. Barkley faces his former team this week, and the Giants have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: Unders are 5-0 when McCarthy is a favorite. Philadelphia's offense gives this one a reason to stay low, as the Eagles lead the league in drives without a first down. Now, Milton makes his first start against a Giants defense that blitzes often. With offensive tackleLane Johnsonretired, keeping drives alive is harder for the Eagles. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Giants 19, Eagles 17
Moody's pick: Giants 24, Eagles 17
Walder's pick: Giants 23, Eagles 13
FPI prediction: NYG, 52.9% (by an average of 0.8 points)
Matchup must-reads:Harbaugh pushing all the right buttons for Giants ... Sources: Hurts makes appearance at Eagles facility ...Coach Sirianni feels 'complete support' from Eagles owner Lurie
Rams (4-4) at Commanders (2-4-1)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | LAR -4.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Rams:Along with pass rusher Myles Garrett(knee), the Rams also opened the practice window for tight endTerrance Ferguson (ankle) this week. The Rams lead in the NFL in plays and yards in 13 personnel (three TEs on the field), according to ESPN Research. They've done that despite being without Ferguson for five games. If he can return this week, it would be a spark to an inconsistent Rams offense. The Commanders have defended the second-fewest plays (14) with three TEs on the field. -- Sarah Barshop
What we're hearing on the Commanders: The Rams have allowed only 3.01 yards per carry over the past three games combined; the Commanders' running backs rank 22nd, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Washington ran the ball well enough in Week 8 to avoid third-and-longs -- 54.2% of its third downs have been for 7 yards or more. Last week, they tied a season-high with seven third downs needing 4 yards or fewer. And that's why Washington needs to run the ball effectively against Los Angeles, to avoid those situations against a team that ranks fifth in pass rush win rate when it's third-and-7 or more. "They have a lot of really good linemen," offensive coordinator David Blough said. "A lot of really good rushers. ... It's a great challenge." -- John Keim
Stat to know: The Commanders have only three turnovers this season, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL (Texans) and tied for their fewest through seven games in franchise history. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Commanders WR Antonio Williams will record at least six receptions, setting a career high. With Terry McLaurin (knee) out, Williams ran a route on 82% of Washington's dropbacks last week. That kind of playing time should result in continued increased production (he caught five passes in that game, a win over the Eagles). -- Walder
Injuries:Rams | Commanders
Fantasy nugget: Rams QB Matthew Stafford finished with only 8.2 fantasy points last week, his second-lowest total of the season. He has a great opportunity to bounce back against a Commanders defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. The Rams' offensive line also ranks 10th in pass block win rate, so Stafford should have plenty of time to get the ball to his playmakers. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: Since 2022, the Rams are 12-4 ATS as road favorites. Washington struggles to get off the field and allows touchdowns on nearly 80% of red zone trips. Stafford can work the short throws and keep drives moving, meanwhile Daniels has struggled against the two-high coverage Los Angeles plays often. That gives the Rams a way to control this game. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Rams 24, Commanders 17
Moody's pick: Rams 27, Commanders 19
Walder's pick: Rams 27, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 72.2% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads:Rams CB Watson needs season-ending shoulder surgery, McVay says
Broncos (6-2) at Panthers (3-4)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Broncos: The defense has helped the team win five one-score games this season, but the workload is a bit of a red flag. No team came into the week with as many defensive snaps as the Broncos (556) -- 22 more than the next team. LB Alex Singleton, who leads the league in tackles (101), also happens to lead all defensive players in snaps played (555). With the team's bye next week, that might have a lot more to say about the offense's inability to possess the ball and convert third downs. "That's a stat I don't like. It's a stat that on offense, we have to do a good job of possessing the ball. So that's something that we pay attention to,'' coach Sean Payton said. -- Jeff Legwold
What we're hearing on the Panthers: Defenders have emphasized "playing fast" this week following the DC switch from Ejiro Evero to Todd Wash. The defensive linemen, in particular, have praised Wash for his direct teaching approach, which has been a staple for the position room since 2023. The staff and defensive players have been mum on the tweaks Wash plans to make to the scheme. Evero ran a zone-heavy 3-4 defense during his three-plus seasons in Carolina. Wash called a hybrid defense -- known as a 4-3 under -- during his time as DC in Jacksonville (2016-20). -- Mike Kaye
Stat to know: Panthers QB Bryce Young has 13 passing TDs, which is tied for the most through the first seven games of a season in Panthers history (2005 Jake Delhomme and 2018 Cam Newton). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos CB Riley Moss will record an interception. Moss has been in tight coverage 23% of the time, per NFL Next Gen Stats, seventh highest among outside corners with at least 150 coverage snaps. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: RB Jonah Coleman led the Broncos' backfield in carries (11) against the Chiefs last week, finishing with a season-high 20.4 fantasy points. WithRJ Harvey(knee) out, J.K. Dobbins remains Coleman's main competition for touches. Coleman should continue to see a ton of opportunities, especially against a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The Panthers are 16-7 ATS after a loss under coachDave Canales, including 15-2 ATS in their past 17 games in that role. Denver's offense gives Carolina a chance to hang around. The Broncos have converted nine of their past 48 third downs. Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard can attack a defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry, helping Carolina avoid asking Young to carry the load. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Broncos 23, Panthers 21
Moody's pick: Broncos 30, Panthers 20
Walder's pick: Broncos 26, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: DEN, 62.7% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads:Why Broncos rookie Coleman is primed to be Denver's primary running back ... Could the Panthers make a trade deadline move? 5 potential targets ... Panthers defenders: We're in 'great hands' after DC switch-up
Texans (2-5) at Chargers (0-7)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | HOU -4.5 (40.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Texans: Houston started Wednesday's practice with tackling drills that reminded edge rusherWill Anderson Jr. of little league football. Coach DeMeco Ryans even got involved, as the former player couldn't resist. But the intent was improving technique as the Texans rank top 10 in missed tackles, which contributes to the explosive plays Houston has given up. -- DJ Bien-Aime
What we're hearing on the Chargers:QBJustin Herbert leads the NFL with 10 interceptions this season, and eight of those happened without being pressured. Now Herbert and the struggling Chargers offense must face a defensive front featuring Anderson and Danielle Hunter -- both of whom rank in the top 10 in pass-rush plays. And Anderson gets home often -- his 7.5 sacks are tied atop the league. "They're very good," Herbert said. "They've done a great job of getting after the passer and forcing turnovers." -- Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: The Chargers have gone 27 straight drives without a TD, which is the longest streak by any team since the 2024 Dolphins (30 straight; Mike McDaniel was the head coach). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Texans CB Kamari Lassiter will record an interception. It has been a tough season for Lassiter, who has allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats -- well above the 1.1 average for an outside corner. But few teams would be better suited to help a corner get back on track than the hapless Chargers. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Texans' defense has a favorable matchup against a Chargers offense that ranks last in points per game (14.4). Los Angeles has also struggled in pass protection, allowing the third-most sacks (23) this season. Houston should be able to generate pressure. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The Chargers are 0-7 straight up and 0-6-1 against the spread, and their offense keeps getting in its own way. Herbert has thrown an interception in every game, and the Chargers haven't scored a touchdown in 27 straight possessions. Now Houston brings Anderson and Hunter. That's another rough setup. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Texans 23, Chargers 16
Moody's pick: Texans 23, Chargers 16
Walder's pick: Texans 24, Chargers 12
FPI prediction: HOU, 62% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads:Have teams figured out Ryans and the Texans' defense? ... Harbaugh on Rams DB's 'deli meat' comment on Herbert: 'It's not what I see' ... Stroud turned down a big contract, playing himself into a bigger one
Packers (5-3) at Patriots (5-3)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | NE -3 (45.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Packers: Not even the return of three-time Pro Bowl RB Josh Jacobsthe past two games has helped the Packers' ground game. At an average of 60.6 yards rushing, they're nearly 17 yards behind the next-worst rushing team. Yet somehow, they're still above water. Green Bay has the fewest rushing yards by any team with a winning record through eight games in NFL history. But how long can that last? "What we're doing now is not sustainable," running backs coach Ben Sirmans said, "and we've just got to figure it out." -- Rob Demovsky
What we're hearing on the Patriots: The Patriots have 15 giveaways on the season, tied for the third-highest total. The Packers have 15 takeaways, which is the second-highest total. While that would seem to favor the Packers, coach Mike Vrabel's team is coming off a rain-soaked game in Miami in which it had only one giveaway and seems to be improving in that area. Vrabel noted the Packers produce the second-most negative plays in the NFL, which highlights the importance of staying ahead of the sticks. -- Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Patriots QBDrake Mayehas had five straight games with at least three passing/rushing TDs, the longest streak by any QB since start of last season. It's also the second-longest streak in Patriots history (2007 Tom Brady, 10 straight). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Patriots WRDeMario Douglaswill record at least six receptions. Yes, a part of this is that New England is banged up at WR with Romeo Doubs (shoulder) on IR and A.J. Brown's status (ankle/knee) unclear (Mack Hollins did return to practice this week, though). But that's not it. Douglas is tied for the eighth-best open score among WRs. Last week, that translated to three receptions for 76 yards, but he also had only three targets. I think more are coming his way. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Packers WR Matthew Golden has seen at least 12 targets in three straight games and scored 20 or more fantasy points in two of them. He faces a Patriots defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to WRs. The Packers are also tied for third in pass attempts per game, and their offensive line ranks 16th in run block win rate. Golden should continue to see a ton of targets in Green Bay's pass-heavy offense. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight:Since 2019 under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 17-3 against the spread (85%) as underdogs of at least three points. Green Bay can make Maye earn it, as the Packers have allowed just two touchdowns against seven interceptions on throws traveling at least 10 yards. That's where Maye has been crushing teams. QBJordan Lovehas enough downfield targets to answer when New England does score. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Packers 27, Patriots 24
Moody's pick: Packers 24, Patriots 23
Walder's pick: Packers 30, Patriots 27
FPI prediction: NE, 56.5% (by an average of 1.7 points)
Matchup must-reads:RB Jacobs not anticipating missing more time despite additional allegations ... Packers give Parsons boost in return from ACL injury
Raiders (4-4) at 49ers (6-1)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | SF -10 (51.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Raiders:Brock Bowers has been a problem for opposing defenses. Through eight weeks, Bowers leads all tight ends in receiving yards (547) despite missing the first two weeks of the season because of a knee procedure. The majority of Bowers' production has come from lining up on the outside. Bowers has run 81 routes from the outside --- the most by a TE. When he's on the outside, Bowers has caught 20 passes for 292 yards and three touchdowns on 28 targets. QBKirk Cousinshas a passer rating of 140.8 when throwing to Bowers on the outside. -- Ryan McFadden
What we're hearing on the 49ers: Coming off the bye, the 49ers have been buoyed by the addition of DT DeForest Buckner via trade. "I think everyone gets that initial burst and then adding someone like Buck and what it adds to the field and the meetings and everything like that, then that's where the momentum becomes real," coach Kyle Shanahan said. The Niners' hope Buckner and edgeNick Bosa's potential return from acalf injurybolsters a pass rush that ranks last in pressure rate (28%) against a Raiders offense that is eighth best in pressure rate allowed (31%). -- Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Raiders have allowed 27-plus points in six consecutive games. That marks the longest streak in franchise history and longest active streak in the NFL. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: 49ers edge Romello Height will record a sack. The rookie has only 1.5 sacks on the season but quietly ranks third in pass rush win rate at edge! That kind of down-to-down performance eventually will translate to more sacks. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget:Cousins ranks seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game, averaging 20.0. He has plenty of playmakers around him, including Bowers. The 49ers have allowed only 15.3 fantasy points per game to signal callers, but I'm still comfortable starting Cousins despite the difficult matchup. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The 49ers are 12-23-2 against the spread off a bye in the Super Bowl era. San Francisco can win and still let Las Vegas hang around. Cousins has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of eight games and keeps producing late. The 49ers have already allowed fourth-quarter scores to Jacoby Brissett andJayden Daniels, giving the Raiders a path to keep this game within reach. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: 49ers 24, Raiders 20
Moody's pick: 49ers 34, Raiders 20
Walder's pick: 49ers 29, Raiders 23
FPI prediction: SF, 83.6% (by an average of 10 points)
Matchup must-reads:How Gary Kubiak paved the way for his sons in the NFL ... Is Buckner's 'nostalgic' trade return the final piece for the 49ers? ... QB Cousins brings joy to Raiders
Cardinals (3-5) at Seahawks (4-4)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | SEA -8.5 (39.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Cardinals: We'll see whether "Minshew Magic" is real again.Gardner Minshew IIwill get his first start of the season, and he'll take the field knowing the job is his -- for now. How that looks after a week of preparation is anybody's guess. With his strong performance last week in Dallas and his history of playing against Seattle coach Mike Macdonald, coupled with Arizona's tape of its Week 2 loss to Seattle, "Minshew Magic" will either take his lore to the next level or bring this team back to reality. -- Josh Weinfuss
What we're hearing on the Seahawks: With QB Sam Darnold (quadriceps) sidelined, the Seahawks are planning to turn back to Drew Lock, who will go for his second win of the season over Arizona. Lock was excellent in Week 2, throwing three touchdown passes with no turnovers. But the circumstances are different this time, as he's dealing with anelbow injury that had him inactive the past two games and has limited his throwing in recent weeks. "He's going to throw the ball throughout the week," Macdonald said, "but we're just going to manage it." Seattle will also get No. 3 QBJalen Milroe ready to play in case Lock's elbow injury becomes too much of an issue. -- Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Cardinals' Budda Baker leads the team with 3.5 sacks. The only other DB over the past 15 seasons to lead a team in sacks is Jaquan Brisker for the 2022 Bears (4.0). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction:Minshew will record a QBR under 15. Minshew played well in relief against Dallas last week (71.2), but going from the Cowboys' defense to the Seahawks' defense is like jumping straight from Division III to the pros. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget:Lock scored 21.4 fantasy points in Week 2. He has a good chance to deliver another strong performance against an Arizona defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The Seahawks have failed to cover six straight home games on short rest, and this is a lot of separation to ask from an uncertain QB situation. Darnold is out, and Lock is slated to start. Seattle's defense should handle Arizona, but its offense averages just 23.1 points and 3.9 yards per carry. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17
Moody's pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17
Walder's pick: Seahawks 26, Cardinals 9
FPI prediction: SEA, 67% (by an average of 4.4 points)
Matchup must-reads:Sources: Ravens finalizing trade with Cardinals for QB Brissett ... Coach: Darnold ruled out with quad injury, is week-to-week ... Cardinals RB Love placed on IR, out 4-5 weeks with high ankle sprain
Buccaneers (3-5) at Bears (6-2)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | CHI -6 (47.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Buccaneers:Caleb Williamsis playing as well as any QB in the NFL, so Tampa Bay knows the tall task at hand. His 77 QBR ranks second, and his one interception is tied for the fewest among QBs with at least 150 attempts. If it wasn't for a hamstring injury that kept him out for three games, he might be the front-runner for MVP. Earlier this week, Bucs coach Todd Bowles said, "We've got to be sound -- all 11 guys. If one guy's out of place, he'll make you pay." -- ESPN staff
What we're hearing on the Bears:Jeffery Simmons played 87% of defensive snaps in his debut with the Bears, four days after a blockbuster trade sent him to Chicago for three draft picks. He got up to speed on the game plan by burning the midnight oil in defensive line coach Jeremy Garrett's office, but Simmons' conditioning and knowledge of different schemes deserves credit for his quick impact (six tackles, two for a loss, one sack). "He's different," Garrett said. "And he plays a high percentage of snaps. Sometimes you catch DEs who can do that. You rarely catch a big man who can play 80-plus percent of those snaps, and they'll be good snaps." -- Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears have 17 rushing TDs this season, which is the most in the NFL and the most for Chicago through eight games since 1956. However, the Buccaneers have allowed only three rushing TDs this season, tied with the 49ers for the fewest. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Bucs WR Ted Hurst III will record a 40-plus-yard reception. Hurst runs go routes or deep fades 20% of the time -- 11th most among players with at least 100 routes this season -- and I think the chance to hit on one of those deep routes is higher this week given the Bears' weakness at CB. -- Walder
Injuries:Buccaneers | Bears
Fantasy nugget: The Buccaneers have leaned heavily on their running game over the past four games, but QB Baker Mayfield has a good chance to bounce back this week. The Bears have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. Tampa Bay is also nearly a seven-point underdog in a game with one of the highest totals on the slate, so Mayfield might have to throw more than usual. That could also result in more targets for WR Emeka Egbuka. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The Bears have covered seven straight primetime games under coach Ben Johnson, including the playoffs (7-1 against the spread overall). Williams just handled two tough defenses, and his quick release gives Chicago an answer to Tampa Bay's pressure. ReceiverLuther Burden III and tight endColston Lovelandcan keep drives moving. Meanwhile, Chicago's blitzes can force Mayfield into mistakes, especially if Chicago makes Tampa Bay abandon the run to keep up. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Bears 27, Buccaneers 20
Moody's pick: Bears 28, Buccaneers 20
Walder's pick: Bears 28, Buccaneers 19
FPI prediction: CHI, 62.9% (by an average of 3.4 points)
Matchup must-reads:Source: Buccaneers pass rusher Diaby has Grade 2 MCL sprain ... Cleats, controversy and the choice of Bears QB Williams
Bills (6-1) at Vikings (6-1)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | BUF -3.5 (45.5 O/U)
What we're hearing on the Bills: For as much flak as the Bills' defense has caught this season, coordinator Jim Leonhard's unit has put together back-to-back clinics in taking away a team's top target. Las Vegas tight end Brock Bowers caught a season-low four passes, and Baltimore receiverZay Flowers failed to catch a pass, a career first. Now, with Vikings star receiverJustin Jefferson on the horizon, Leonhard said the key to isolating and taking away a problem opponent lies in disguising and mixing up schemes to confuse and force QBs off their primary reads: "You have to really dig in the weeds on some of the situational things that maybe you can get a beat on them," Leonhard said. -- Nick Suss
What we're hearing on the Vikings: The Vikings had high hopes for an improved running game this season, and coach Kevin O'Connell has remained committed. He has called design runs on 42% of plays, 10th most in the NFL. But it has not been effective, as the team ranks 29th in rushing EPA. After leaving their defense on the field for 35 minutes and 68 plays in last week's loss, the Vikings know they need to run better against the Bills, whose rush defense ranks 25th in EPA. -- Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Vikings' defense has allowed 13.3 points per game (fewest in NFL). The last team to allow fewer in a season was the 2006 Ravens (12.6 per game). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Bills DT Deone Walker will record a sack. Walker has only one sack this season but has a 92nd percentile pressure rate for an interior rusher. Plus, QB Carson Wentz, who will be making the start,took sacks on 12.8% of his dropbacks (more than double the league average!) in his two games this season. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson has averaged 7.6 targets and 18.0 fantasy points per game over his past three full games. That excludes Week 5, when he played only a few snaps before leaving because of a concussion. Hockenson has also scored a touchdown in each of his past two games and now faces a Bills defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to TEs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody
Betting insight: The Bills are road favorites at Minnesota for the first time after being underdogs in six previous trips. Buffalo has the running game to handle this matchup. Minnesota allows 5.3 yards per carry to RBs after halftime.James Cook III and Josh Allencan keep leaning on that while the Vikings' struggling offense makes it tough to trade scores with Buffalo. Read more. -- Maldonado
Maldonado's pick: Bills 24, Vikings 20
Moody's pick: Vikings 23, Bills 20
Walder's pick: Bills 24, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 63.6% (by an average of 3.6 points)
Matchup must-reads:Bills release Gardner-Johnson after one-game spitting suspension ... Vikings to start QB Wentz against Bills with Murray ruled out ...WR Jefferson high on Vikings' offensive potential, doesn't want to waste it
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