New poll shows 45% of US voters identify as independents, shifting away from major political parties

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- A growing share of Americans are distancing themselves from both major political parties, a trend that's reshaping the electoral landscape nationally and in California.

A new Gallup survey found that 45% of U.S. adults now identify as political independents, the highest level recorded in Gallup's three decades of tracking voter affiliation. The trend accelerated over the past year, with the biggest spike coming from voters who lean Democratic.

California is experiencing its own version of that realignment. No-party-preference voters are now nearly tied with registered Republicans statewide, according to data from the California Secretary of State's office.

For roughly every six registered Republicans, the state has five independents - a ratio that has evolved over twenty years of slow but steady changes in party identification.

Democrats, however, still dominate the state by a wide margin, outnumbering either group by roughly two-to-one.

As of December, more than 10.3 million voters are registered as Democrats, with about 5.8 million registered as Republicans and 5.2 million as no party and 1.6 selecting "other."

But even with Democrats' clear numerical advantage, East Bay political consultant Jim Ross says campaigns ignore independents at their own risk.

"There's frustration with both parties," Ross said. "It's hard to figure out what you should say to them and how to communicate with them."

Ross says voters choose the independent label for vastly different reasons.

"Some people might be moderate or conservative but want to protect abortion rights," he said. "Others might be progressive but think the Democratic Party doesn't go far enough."

Why independents matter even more in California's "top two" system

California's open primary rules heighten the influence of voters outside the parties. Under the "top two" system, candidates advance to the November ballot only by finishing among the two highest votegetters - regardless of party.

That means campaigns often need coalitions that cut across traditional partisan lines.

Ross says the surge in leftleaning independents highlights a gap in California's stillforming 2026 gubernatorial race.

"There's no Mamdani in the race," he said, referring to New York City's progressive new mayor. "Finding a path in this race is something a lot of candidates are still trying to figure out."

With independent voters now comprising one of the most dynamic - and unpredictable - segments of the electorate, both parties may face a challenge: courting a growing bloc that increasingly wants something different from what either side is offering.