Poll finds California voters back billionaire tax and measure that could block it

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- California voters appear inclined to support a proposed one-time tax on billionaires, but new polling shows they may also approve two other ballot measures that could prevent the tax from taking effect.

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll found 52% of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 40, compared with 46% who would vote no.

But the same poll found 51% support Proposition 41 and 54% support Proposition 42, two measures that could potentially nullify Proposition 40 if they pass and receive more votes.

RELATED: Prop 40 is dividing CA labor unions and experts argue the fight goes well beyond a billionaire tax

Proposition 41 would nullify state taxes enacted after Jan. 1, 2026 that exempt their revenues from California's voter-approved state spending limit. It would also require state audits of programs funded by new special taxes. Proposition 42 would prohibit new state taxes on personal property ownership, including financial assets and business interests.

That creates the possibility of an unusual outcome in November: voters could approve the billionaire tax while also approving one or both measures designed in ways that could block it.

Proposition 40 would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on Californians with more than $1 billion in covered assets. Ninety percent of the revenue would go toward health care, with the remainder going toward food assistance, education and administration of the tax. The Legislative Analyst estimates the tax would temporarily generate tens of billions of dollars over several years.

"I think the bottom line is that we're winning, despite the mountain of money being spent by Sergey Brin and the billionaires," said Dave Regan, president of SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, which is sponsoring Proposition 40. "Their attempts to confuse and distract people right now, they're not getting the job done."

Supporters have framed the measure as a way to shore up health care funding by requiring some of California's wealthiest residents to pay more.

"They were the beneficiaries of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' tax cuts," Regan said. "For people around California, we want our health care back. We want our money back."

Opponents argue the one-time tax could cause wealthy residents to leave California and ultimately reduce state revenue. The Legislative Analyst estimates behavioral changes by billionaires, including some potentially leaving the state, could reduce ongoing state income tax collections by less than $1 billion annually.

The debate has also created some unusual political divisions.

PROP 40: Despite Newsom's opposition, CA Democrats endorse billionaire tax measure

The California Democratic Party supports Proposition 40, while the San Francisco Democratic Party opposes it. Nancy Tung, chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party, said opposition to the measure should not necessarily be interpreted as opposition to taxing billionaires.

"I don't think anyone in San Francisco thinks that we shouldn't be taxing billionaires more," Tung said. "This is a conversation that we should be having on a much broader scale, not just California and not just one time tax."

Tung said she believes voters are only beginning to focus on the details of the propositions.

"I think from now until Election Day is when voters will really start to wake up and think about what's on their ballot," Tung said. "And so there's a lot of room still for persuasion."

For Tung, the question is less about whether wealthy Californians should pay more and more about whether Proposition 40 is the right mechanism.

"I want to get away from this idea that this is a binary. It's either yes right now or no forever," Tung said. "The choice that we're making is to have good, sound policy that benefits all of California."

Regan rejects arguments that the measure would undermine California's broader business climate, noting the tax applies to individuals rather than businesses.

"This is a tax on billionaires, 250 individuals. It has nothing to do with their businesses," Regan said. "The other thing we know is the billionaires have never had it better in California."

The potentially conflicting measures come amid broader signs that voters are struggling with the sheer number and complexity of propositions on this year's ballot. Californians will decide 14 statewide measures in November, and an overwhelming majority of likely voters surveyed by PPIC agreed there are too many propositions on the ballot.

That confusion could matter considerably for Propositions 40, 41 and 42.

If voters approve Proposition 40 along with one or both competing measures, which provisions ultimately take effect could depend on which measure receives more affirmative votes.

County election officials will begin mailing ballots to California voters on Oct. 5. Election Day is Nov. 3.