California's Prop 50 could shift political power - and redraw who rural voters are represented by

AUBURN, Calif. (KGO) -- Rural voters across California say they're bracing for big changes if Proposition 50 passes next week, a measure that would temporarily let state lawmakers redraw congressional maps and shift who represents large swaths of the state's conservative-leaning regions.

The proposal would replace maps drawn by California's independent redistricting commission, which is considered a nationwide model for fairness, and could make five Republican-held districts more competitive for Democrats through 2030.

CA Election: Everything you need to know about Prop 50

Spearheaded by Gov. Gavin Newsom, supporters say it's a necessary countermeasure to Republican-led map changes in other states. Opponents argue it's a step backward that could set a precedent for the state to ask voters to permanently eliminate the commission in the future.

In rural communities in California's congressional district 3, that prospect has left some voters questioning how their representation could change. The seat is currently held by Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, who is at high risk of losing his seat if the new maps take effect. In the 2024 election, Kiley won his district by nearly 11 points and President Donald Trump won by about 4 points.

"We are out there blatantly trying to gerrymander and not even trying to hide it at this point to remove representation from people," said Mike Murray, a Republican voter who lives in Placer County.

But the proposed map would stretch that district into parts of eastern Sacramento, blending agricultural communities with more urban and suburban voters. Mac Young - another GOP voter who lives in Nevada County in the district - said many in their area already feel neglected by the Democratic-dominated state Legislature.

"It's not a particularly prosperous county, it relies heavily on what the feds and the state are doing and so when you start changing those lines you're changing those priorities in changing the welfare of the folks that live in those areas," he said.

Murray and Young said they worry the change would shift focus away from rural priorities, since voter density would be more populated in the Sacramento part of the new district.

"Congress is in a two-year cycle, so they're almost always campaigning. It's not anybody's fault, but you have to prioritize your time away from those rural areas...and put it more on the voting centers," Murray said.

How Prop 50 would change the map

Prop 50 would redraw five of California's existing Republican-held congressional seats to make them more competitive for Democrats in 2026. In exchange, several other districts around the state would become redder.

An analysis by the ABC7 Data Journalism Team found that under the proposed lines, the balance of power would shift in subtle but significant ways.

In Southern California's District 38, Vice President Kamala Harris would have defeated former President Donald Trump 54% to 42% - a slight drop in the Democratic margin.

In Northern California's District 4, Harris still would have won, 56% to 41%, but Trump's support would have increased nearly 17 points - a potential opening for Republicans down ballot.

And in the Central Valley's District 13, Harris and Trump would have been essentially tied - each earning about 48% - making it a true toss-up.

Strategists describe this as a deliberate trade-off: sacrificing dominance in some areas to compete for more seats overall. It's a high-stakes calculation that could decide control of Congress. If those bets fail, it's what political insiders call a "dummy-mander," when the gerrymander backfires.

A familiar debate over fairness

Newsom has framed Prop 50 as a countermeasure to red states like Texas and Missouri, where Republican legislatures recently redrew maps to cement their power. Newsom argues California's proposal is uniquely transparent because voters - not lawmakers - will decide whether the new boundaries take effect.

But the plan has drawn criticism from both parties and from those who helped create California's citizen-led redistricting system.

Cynthia Dai - a Democrat who served on the state's first independent commission in 2010 - says she worries this temporary move could set a lasting precedent, even though the measure specifies commissioners would regain map-drawing powers in 2030.

"If you fight fire with fire, everything's on fire at the end," Dai said. "Do you think California should be the sacrificial lamb and basically hand your power of voting over to a party boss instead, who will say he or she knows what's best for you? Does that sound like a democracy to you?"

For voters like Young and Murray, the outcome will determine more than where their district lines fall.

"We love this state. We love the opportunity and we love what it represents. We wanna see it operating as well and as good as it can. And I think Prop 50 is a real strike against that," Murray said.