Proposed California billionaire tax shows early support in new poll

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- A proposed one-time tax on California billionaires' assets is showing a slight early advantage among likely voters, according to a new public poll that offers the first glimpse of how the measure could fare if it reaches the November ballot.

The UC Berkeley-POLITICO poll shows the union-backed wealth tax has an early advantage with about half of voters saying they'd support it. Overall, 23% remain unsure.

But the proposal is still hypothetical, as labor group SEIU is gathering signatures to qualify the measure for the November ballot of what could become a costly campaign.

BACKGROUND: How a proposed billionaire tax could impact Silicon Valley

"In ballot initiatives in California, you really want to start in the 60s," said Roger Salazar, a veteran of ballot measure campaigns, about early polling. He is also working with the Golden State Promise PAC, which formed solely to defeat the wealth tax.

Salazar said factors such as ballot language, messaging, and endorsements often determine an initiative's success. "Anytime you sort of have raised doubt in a voter's mind, they're going to tend to want to vote no," he said.

If approved by voters, the measure would fund California's healthcare system, which Salazar said might play to the opposition's favor.

"It's not ideally written for, you know, for helping the, the overall budget," he said. "You can tell that there's a little bit of skittishness among the voters."

Menlo College political science professor Melissa Michelson said voters' uncertainty is not surprising, given how early it is.

MORE: Tech moguls threaten to leave CA as billionaire tax proposal gains support among unions

"If you don't have a lot of information about a proposition and you're not really sure if it's a good idea or not, it can feel safer to vote no," she said.

Unlike Proposition 50, which enjoyed unified Democratic support last fall, the wealth tax faces resistance from Gov. Gavin Newsom and other party leaders.

Michelson said that political calculus may be part of the reluctance: "As an elected official or a candidate, you might also be concerned about, well, who am I going to ask for donations next time around if I've annoyed all of the billionaires?"

Political observers say both public sentiment and political backing are complicated for a measure of this kind.

Michelson noted that some voters may have already internalized pushback that the exodus of rich CEOs, founders and tech executives will ultimately hurt the state.

MORE: California union proposes taxing billionaires to offset Medicaid cuts

"There's a desire to make their economic situation better...but not if voting for this tax means that maybe there'll be fewer jobs," Michelson said. "Maybe they haven't yet heard the argument on the pro side, which is more about equality and fairness."

Still, she emphasized that the measure remains far from settled.

"It's not even qualified for the ballot yet," Michelson said. "People need more information.

The proposal is likely to face significant messaging battles if it qualifies for the November ballot, with millions expected to be spent by both supporters and opponents.