Week 9 betting preview: Analysis, best bets, TD predictions for Sunday
Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: Find betting value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 9.
From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. Let's get into it.
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Bowen's favorite bets
Solak's plays| Walder's props
Clay's TD projections
Bowen's favorite bets
Heading into the Week 9 Sunday slate, I'm going to start with the late-window Packers-Patriots matchup in New England, giving you my pick for the game. I have some thoughts there on the Green Bay defense based on what it is showing on the tape. Plus, I have a couple more game picks to look at -- including a two-team teaser -- and I'll throw down some props, too.
I'll start with the Packers' defense under coordinator Jonathan Gannon. This unit is playing its best football of the season, allowing 14.8 PPG over the past four while giving up just 4.5 yards per play. The Packers are taking the ball away, too, recording 11 turnovers in this four-game stretch. We'll see a lot of late movement in the secondary, with multiple fronts and disguised pressures, which will force Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to read it out post-snap with a wide receiver group that is still banged up. Offensively for the Packers, the combo of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden creates vertical opportunities for quarterback Jordan Love. My concern here? Can Green Bay get the running game going with Josh Jacobs? I don't see a burst yet from Jacobs, which the Packers will need to attack the edges on outside zone run concepts. But with the added prep time, I like Green Bay to cover here.
Denver Broncos -2.5 at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers' offensive line is beat up, and they can't protect consistently on the edges, as quarterback Bryce Young has been sacked 11 times over the last two games. That's trouble versus a Denver pass rush that has a pressure rate of 40.4% (second highest in the league). Yes, Jonah Coleman can give the Broncos' run game a boost versus a Panthers defense allowing 140.7 rushing yards per game (third most), but I'm taking Denver because of its ability to disrupt the pocket.
Two team, 6.5-point teaser (-143): Arizona Cardinals +15 at Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions -0.5 at Miami Dolphins
Moving the Cardinals to +15 points at Seattle, which will have Drew Lock making the start for an injured Sam Darnold, feels more comfortable. I like this Cardinals offense with Gardner Minshew II at quarterback, too. Minshew is fearless with the ball. And while that can lead to turnover situations, Minshew has the movement traits to keep plays alive, which will allow Arizona to compete at a higher rate on Sunday.
Teasing the Lions down to almost a moneyline play is the smart move here on the road in Miami. Detroit showed us last week that it can go run-heavy with Jahmyr Gibbs to close out games, and we know the Lions will have pass-game answers for a Miami defense that has been more zone-heavy this season.
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Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards OVER 26.5 (-116)
I missed on Gibbs last week, but this is a good matchup for him in the passing game. Miami is allowing 40.6 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, and Gibbs has 27 or more yards in six of seven games played this season.
Bryce Young passing yards UNDER 237.5 passing yards (-113)
I rarely play the under, but Young has thrown for fewer than 210 yards in each of his past two starts. And as we discussed above, the Broncos' pass rush has matchup advantages here on the edges.
Blake Corum rushing yards OVER 49.5 (-112)
Corum has seen his usage jump over the past two weeks, rushing for at least 73 yards -- with 11 or more carries -- in back-to-back games. With a Sunday matchup versus a Washington defense that is now down defensive linemen Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw due to season-ending injuries, I like Corum to hit the over.
Malachi Fields anytime TD (+475)
Let's take a shot here on Fields at Philly. The rookie caught his only touchdown pass of the season back in Week 4, but he has the physical tools to win boundary matchups. And in Week 7 with J.J. McCarthy making the start for the Giants, Fields caught four of five targets (with one end zone target) for 83 yards.
Joe Burrow-Michael Penix Jr. combined pass yards 500+ (-112)
Let's try something new here with Burrow and Penix throwing for a combined total of 500 or more yards. Both defenses in this matchup rank in the bottom 15 in passing yards allowed, and Burrow has thrown for more than 420 yards in two of his past four starts. Penix? Throw out the weather game last week. He has posted 220-plus passing yards in four of six starts this season.
Solak's plays
Atlanta Falcons +3 (-102) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I really like this matchup for the Falcons -- always a scary thing to say after a team scored zero points and lost to an opponent who completed zero passes. But I do! The Falcons have a 40% pressure rate, the sixth-highest number in football, and they're facing a Bengals team that is passing the football more than any other team in the league. They're going to be able to accumulate hits on Joe Burrow, and they're going to get some stops in the air, too. Per Next Gen Stats, the Falcons are tight to routes downfield, only allowing 2.0 yards of separation on throws of at least 10 air yards and forcing a tight window on 34.8% of those pass attempts. Both of those numbers are second best in the league. The Falcons just had to play a deep run of teams with healthy rushing attacks (the 49ers, Bears, Buccaneers, Ravens). When they've played unbalanced teams like the Packers or Saints, this defense has really shined.
Offensively, the Falcons catch Cincinnati at a good moment, as star Bengals cornerbackDJ Turner IIisdealing with a heel injury. He returned to practice Thursday, but his status for Sunday morning in Madrid is uncertain. Look for Drake London to have a big contest on the outside, and the Bengals have always had issues handling tight ends, so Kyle Pitts Sr. could see increased volume as well. This is a great stylistic fight for a Falcons team desperate to stay in the NFC South race. I love them to cover the spread.
Christian Watson receptions UNDER 4.5 (+105)
It's a tough draw Sunday for Watson, who will see the combination of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III on the outside in New England. The Patriots are also a heavy man-cover team, running it at the third-highest rate in football, and Watson has been less productive against man coverage this year than in seasons past when he was the only shot-play specialist on the roster. With Matthew Golden's emergence,Watson is no longer the team leader in targets per route run versus man coverage (27.0% to 30.1%).
My expectation for this matchup is that Patriots DC Zak Kuhr will blitz heavily and try to force Jordan Love into even quicker throws than normal (Love gets rid of the ball at the quickest rate in the league). Matchups-wise, Gonzalez will draw Watson, given his ideal blend of height/weight/speed to match that of Watson's, and the ball will likely go elsewhere, to Golden, tight end Tucker Kraft or running back Josh Jacobs. At plus money, betting on Gonzalez to keep Watson quiet is too tempting to pass up.
Joe Milton rushing yards OVER 22.5 (-113)
The Eagles benched Tanner McKee in favor of Milton, the big-armed, big-bodied 2024 NFL draft player out of Tennessee and Michigan. Milton has bounced around a few practice squads and seen some relief action in New England and Dallas, and in that time has accumulated some rushing production: 15 carries for 66 yards over 70 snaps.
It's worth noting that Milton is a willing, but not a particularly eager, scrambler. His scramble rate of 8.6% is just above that of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, but below that of guys we really expect to rack up the big rushing totals, such asMalik Willis or Jayden Daniels (both 13%). But because Milton is playing for OC Sean Mannion, who was last in Green Bay and cheerfully used Willis as a designed runner when the QB stepped in for Jordan Love, it's fair to expect Milton to get some designed running game usage as well.
I'd love to take over on attempts instead of yards here to get myself some tush push exposure as well, but the market isn't up. As it is, I'll take the over on Milton's rushing yards and also sprinkle some on him to score a touchdown at +550.
Tyler Shough completions OVER 21.5 (-120)
It's an interesting spot for the 2-5 Saints, who are coming off of their bye week and draw a 5-3 Browns team without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. Still only one game out of the lead in the NFC South, the urgency is high for Saints head coach Kellen Moore. And the matchup is favorable for second-year quarterback Tyler Shough. The Browns run more man coverage than any defense in football, and Shough has been excellent against man coverage this year. His 70.1% completion percentage is second only to Burrow, and it's no small sample; his 79 dropbacks against man coverage this year are fifth in the league.
Moore is a great play designer and Shough is accurate in the short areas, so the Saints can easily get quick outlets open, even against sticky man-coverage teams. If rookie Jordyn Tyson does indeed return to the lineup -- unlikely, but possible -- it only improves the Saints' deep bag of pass catchers with which Shough can nickel-and-dime his way up the field. The Saints made changes to their coaching staff in the hope of reinvigorating their running game, but I can't imagine they'll completely turn down from their 65.4% pass rate. The volume and opportunity should be there for Shough to cruise to this number so long as the Saints don't build a big lead in the second half.
Las Vegas Raiders +10 (-112) at San Francisco 49ers
Do I feel good about this? No. Absolutely not. The 49ers are 6-1 and coming off their bye. The Raiders just ended a four-game losing streak, but it took a four-quarter fight against the Jets -- one in which they benefited from a special teams touchdown -- to do it. Ashton Jeanty was benched for Mike Washington Jr. Things are weird in Las Vegas.
But the 49ers are likely to be down Mike Evans, who has been the load-bearing wall of their receiving room through the first half of the season. Evans is among the top three receivers in first downs per target, touchdowns per target, third-down conversion rate on targets and air yards to the sticks. He moves the 49ers down the field in a way their other pass-catching options do not. The return of Demarcus Robinson (see below) is big for the floor of the passing game, but there isn't a great ceiling here in San Francisco's dropback game.
That, plus the 49ers' lack of a great matchup option for Brock Bowers, has me believing the Raiders can keep this thing within 10. Even if the 49ers build a big point lead, the Raiders have scored in droves in garbage time fourth quarters this season, and they have a splashy run defense that can create tackles for loss to prevent the 49ers from salting away that lead. The backdoor is open on a number this big -- but I wouldn't take it at +9.5.
Demarcus Robinson receiving yards OVER 32.5 (-110)
Robinson is back after his Week 2 injury, and at a critical time. The 49ers are still down starting receivers Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr., and accordingly were starting Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing and Brandin Cooks before the bye week hit. Robinson played 63% of the snaps in his only full game this season, and the number could have been higher (rookie De'Zhaun Stribling started the game, and Robinson went in after Stribling's injury).
For a veteran receiver playing for an elite playcaller and a great quarterback, 32.5 is too low a number for an expected 80% route share. Robinson tends to hit explosive plays more often than he enjoys games of high-volume underneath usage, so I lean toward the yardage over the receptions here (2.5), but I think both are playable numbers and I will be taking some alts on both figures. Since Week 5, the Raiders are allowing the third-highest explosive pass rate, so we can get there on one big Robinson play even if he ends up receiving lower volume than we expect.
Walder's prop bets
Note: More defensive props will be added as odds become available
Defensive plays
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST anytime touchdown (+650)
Here are two numbers I like to see as someone making this bet: Michael Penix Jr. has a 2.8% interception rate (fifth worst among QBR qualifying quarterbacks) and a 2.0% fumble rate (third worst). That's largely what we're banking on here -- a turnover. And then hoping the defense can return it for a score. At this price, it's worth rolling those dice. I make the fair price here +525.
New York Jets to NOT allow a first-drive sack (-316)
Geno Smith has taken sacks at a high 8.5% rate this year (average is 6.2%), and the fact that the Jets are 10-point underdogs certainly elevates his chances to get sacked over the course of the game. But on the first possession? These odds are just too favorable. Especially because the Jets' pass protection is decent and they are a run-leaning team. But mostly it's because the disadvantages of being a heavy underdog are very mild if we're looking only at the first drive. My model makes the fair price here -478.
Offensive plays
Brock Purdy pass attempts OVER 30.5 (-110)
It's easy to see why this line is as low as it is. The San Francisco 49ers are 10-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders, and if they get out to a big lead, as the line suggests is fairly likely, then they might not have to pass much at all. But don't sleep on just how pass-heavy San Francisco has been this year. The 49ers rank fourth in pass rate over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And the fact that the Raiders are also pass-heavy means the clock might be stopped more frequently than in other games, which could lead to more plays for San Francisco.
Alvin Kamara receptions UNDER 3.5 (-127)
Last week we hit on Jaylen Warren under 2.5 receptions at plus money playing against the Cleveland Browns, and I'm coming back again with essentially the same bet on the receiving back facing Cleveland this week. The theory is the same: running backs catch passes on 15% of dropbacks when facing zone coverage, but only 8% against man. That's because it's easy for them to settle in to a soft spot in the zone coverage to be a check-down option. Against man, a defender is staying with them. The Browns are clearly the most man-heavy team in the league (63% man coverage), and I'm betting that limits Kamara's day.
Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown this week? Whether you intend to make an anytime touchdown bet, are setting a DFS lineup or simply enjoy peering into a crystal ball, I have a prediction for you.
Every week, we generatefantasy football projectionsfor every game on the slate, and that includes the probability that a player will take the ball into the end zone.
Here are my top predicted scorers for Week 9, ordered by their implied odds*, as well as the anytime touchdown moneyline offered by DraftKings at time of publication. These implied odds are what my projections consider the fair odds of that player to score on an anytime touchdown bet.
*Implied odds convert the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a moneyline. Look for implied odds that are higher than the moneyline offered. For example if the implied odds are -150 and the moneyline is -110, then Clay's projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.
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