El Niño strengthens to highest category with 70% chance of record-breaking winter, new report says

El Niño strengthens with 70% chance of record-breaking winter: report
A major update from the Climate Prediction Center shows El Niño continues to strengthen, with a "very strong" El Niño continuing through the winter.
KGO
Drew Tuma Image
Thursday, October 8, 2026 6:18PM

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- A major update from the Climate Prediction Center shows El Niño continues to strengthen, with a very strong El Niño continuing through the winter.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific are exceeding two degrees Celsius and will likely continue to warm into January. Isolated areas, like in waters close to South America, are close to 10 degrees Celsius above average.

There is a 70% chance of this current El Niño exceeding all previous El Niños on record, with stats going back to 1950.

November is likely to see near-average rainfall, but odds continue to favor a wetter-than-normal winter across all of California.

December, January and February will likely all have above-average rainfall in Northern California, and one of these months could see double its normal monthly rainfall. January continues to look like the wettest month of the three.

Now Streaming 24/7 Click Here

Copyright © 2026 KGO-TV. All Rights Reserved.