Violent crime is dropping in the Bay Area and nationwide, FBI data shows
SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- Violent crime fell sharply across the United States in 2025, continuing a broader decline that is also playing out across the Bay Area, according to newly released FBI data and local police departments.
The FBI's annual crime report, released Friday, shows violent crime nationwide fell an estimated 9.3% in 2025, compared with the year before. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter dropped 18.1%, robbery fell 18.5%, rape declined 7.6% and aggravated assault fell 7.2%.
The national murder rate fell to 4.1 killings per 100,000 people, tying 1955 and 1956 for the lowest rate since the FBI began producing national estimates in 1936.
President Donald Trump touted the numbers during remarks in New York on Friday and credited his administration with helping drive crime lower.
"We have the numbers down because of what the federal government's doing," Trump said.
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The FBI data, however, show the decline in violence was already underway before Trump's second term began. The national murder rate reached a 20-year high during the pandemic era, hitting 6.6 per 100,000 people in both 2020 and 2022 before falling to 6.0 in 2023. It was 5.1 per 100,000 in 2024 and 4.1 last year.
The FBI report does not identify a single policy or enforcement strategy as responsible for the decline. In an introductory message, FBI Director Kash Patel credited cooperation among federal, state, county, tribal and local law enforcement agencies broadly.
The Bay Area followed the same trend. According to data from each city's police department analyzed by the ABC7 Eyewitness News Data Team, violent crime in 2025 fell about 17% in San Francisco, 25% in Oakland and about 13% in San Jose compared with 2024. Those figures include murder, rape, robbery and felony assault.
Oakland's decline has continued into 2026. Through Aug. 9, Oakland police reported violent crime was down 17% compared with the same period last year. Homicides were down 22%, aggravated assaults 10% and robberies 27%. Firearm robberies were down 42%.
Steve Smith, a senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute who previously worked in law enforcement, said part of the decline may reflect a return toward crime patterns seen before the pandemic.
"I see the drop, if people want to call it that, as really just a return to normal," Smith said.
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Smith also pointed to cooperation between police and the public as one factor that can help investigators solve crimes.
"They're willing to call the police, they're willing to cooperate with the police, and they're willing to see cases through the court system," Smith said.
Even as violent crime declines, many cases remain unsolved. The FBI reported that law enforcement agencies cleared 47.4% of violent crimes in 2025 through an arrest or other exceptional means. Property crimes had a much lower clearance rate of 17.4%.
For Paulette Brown, those numbers are deeply personal.
Friday marked 20 years since her 17-year-old son, Aubrey Abrakasa Jr., was shot and killed near Grove and Baker streets in San Francisco. His killing remains unsolved.
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Brown returned to the neighborhood Friday to put up posters and continue pressing for information in the case.
"I have hope. I hope that one day I will get justice for my son," Brown said.
Brown said that while she believes violence has declined to some extent, the statistics do not always match what she sees in the community.
"People are still walking around with bullets in them. They're still killing," she said.
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie has also pointed to declines beyond violent crime, saying this week that car break-ins, already at a 22-year low last year, have fallen further in 2026.
"If you come to San Francisco to commit a crime, we're going to arrest you, and we're going to prosecute it," Lurie said in a social media video.
Not every measure improved. The FBI reported more than 90,000 assaults on law enforcement officers in 2025, the highest number in at least a decade.
