New CA gov poll shows tight race; Democrats Becerra, Steyer could advance

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- A crowded race for California governor is coming into sharper focus, with new polling released Friday showing three candidates separating themselves from the rest of the field.

A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll places Democrat Xavier Becerra in the lead with 25% support, followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 21%. Democrat Tom Steyer trails closely at 19%, with Chad Bianco and Katie Porter at 16% and 13%, respectively.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, said the top candidates are beginning to emerge despite close voter preferences.

"They're very close to one another in preferences, but they've certainly separated themselves from the rest of the field," DiCamillo said.

A Public Policy Institute of California poll released Thursday showed a similar dynamic, reinforcing the idea that the race may come down to the same leading contenders.

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"Now, we can kind of see with some clarity that it's going to be Becerra, Hilton and Steyer, and two of them will advance to the general election," DiCamillo said.

The current landscape marks a shift from earlier in the year. In February, some analysts, including Sacramento-based political data analyst Paul Mitchell of Political Data, suggested two Republicans could potentially advance to the general election.

Mitchell said voter behavior has evolved as the race has developed.

"Many of these voters now are casting ballots with that as one of the primary concerns. So, instead of maybe voting their heart choice -- somebody who is at 5% in the polls -- they might be shifting their voting to make sure they're supporting one of the potential winners," Mitchell said.

With Steyer trailing Hilton by a narrow margin, there is growing speculation that two Democrats could secure spots on the November ballot instead.

Mitchell pointed to two major developments shaping the race: Hilton's endorsement from Pres. Donald Trump and the exit of former Rep. Eric Swalwell following sexual assault allegations.

MORE: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton lead the pack in the race for California governor, new poll shows

"That changes the math -- one fewer Democrat to split the vote on their side, and on the Republican side, one candidate capturing enough votes to maybe get 25% in the election and ensure a Republican makes the top spot," Mitchell said.

Nick Berg, chairman of the San Francisco Republican Party, said the poll results align with his expectations. He said he is encouraged by Hilton's standing and not concerned about Steyer's proximity.

"The poll results are about what I expected," Berg said. "I think Steyer is already very overexposed. He's spent more than $192 million of his own personal money flooding the airwaves with his ads."

With the race remaining tight, DiCamillo said the outcome is still uncertain heading into Tuesday.

"I don't have a crystal ball for Tuesday. We'll have to wait and see," DiCamillo said.

MORE: Billionaire Tom Steyer's ad spending breaks records in California governor's race

Election officials are urging voters not to wait to return their mail ballots. A recent U.S. Postal Service processing change means some ballots mailed close to Election Day may not receive a postmark in time to be counted.

Officials say voters are better off using an official ballot drop box, voting center or county elections office.

The primary is scheduled for Tuesday, June 2.