Odds continue to favor a record El Niño winter ahead, according to latest NOAA update
As El Niño continues to strengthen, ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are running on average 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than average.
But there's an area off the coast of South America in the Eastern Pacific where those waters are more than 10 degrees Celsius above average. This is extremely warm water.
The strength of El Niño is measured by how warm these waters are compared to average. When we have these waters above 2 degrees Celsius, that puts us in the "Very Strong" category, which is the highest. We will be in this category through at least March 2027.
El Niño Effect: How climate pattern could reshape California's winter
NOAA says there is a 60% chance of this current El Niño exceeding all previous El Niños on record, with stats going back to 1950. This is slightly down from the 70% chance of a historic winter that NOAA gave in October, but the odds are still that records will be broken.
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The heaviest rain is expected in late December through January.
